july done.
target hit.
second married month complete.
july final numbers #
starting (jul 1): $469,440
ending (jul 31): $477,040
july gain: +$7,600 (+1.62%)
trades: 20
wins: 18
losses: 2
win rate: 90%
trading days: 21
Figure 1: July weekly performance showing conservative summer approach. Week 1: +$1,240 (holiday week), Week 2: +$2,260 (volume recovery), Week 3: +$1,980 (pre-earnings steady), Week 4: +$1,800 (earnings survival), Final days: +$320. All weeks profitable. Conservative sizing throughout. Total +$7,600 (+1.62%).
weekly breakdown #
week 1 (jul 1-6): +$1,240 (+0.26%), 100% wr, 3 trades - holiday week
week 2 (jul 7-13): +$2,260 (+0.48%), 86% wr, 7 trades - volume recovered
week 3 (jul 14-20): +$1,980 (+0.42%), 83% wr, 6 trades - pre-earnings
week 4 (jul 21-27): +$1,800 (+0.38%), 100% wr, 4 trades - earnings survival
final days (jul 28-31): +$320 (+0.07%), 100% wr, 0 new trades - let winners ride
all 5 periods profitable.
comparing to target #
july realistic outcomes (from june 30):
normal summer month: +1.0% to +2.0%
target: +1.5% to +1.8%
july actual: +1.62%
result: TARGET HIT (mid-range)
summer months continue to perform within expectations.
market conditions july #
avg VIX: 15.6 (summer baseline with earnings spike)
avg correlation: 0.62 (manageable)
avg volume: 3.4M contracts (typical summer + earnings spike)
avg regime stability: 0.72 (good, some earnings disruption)
slippage: 2.0 ticks average (normalized)
conditions: typical summer with earnings event
Figure 2: 2025 YTD performance through July. Monthly bars: Jan +$9,550, Feb +$8,920, Mar -$9,582 (losing month), Apr +$9,732, May +$3,840 (wedding pause), Jun +$9,180, Jul +$7,600 (summer conservative). Orange line shows cumulative YTD reaching +$39,240 (+9.12%). Pattern: 6 winning months, 1 losing month = 86% monthly win rate. On track for 15-18% annual target. Sustained conservative approach through summer paying off.
trade distribution #
options: 18 trades, +$6,560 (86% of gains)
SPX: 11 trades, +$4,340
QQQ: 7 trades, +$2,220
crypto: 2 trades, +$1,040 (14% of gains)
BTC: 2 trades, +$1,040
futures: 0 trades (summer skip continues)
allocation: 86% options, 14% crypto
Figure 3: July gains by instrument. SPX options dominated (+$4,340, 57% of total), followed by QQQ options (+$2,220, 29%), and BTC crypto (+$1,040, 14%). No ETH or futures trades. Conservative crypto allocation (14% vs 17% june) reflects summer thin volume caution. Options remain core driver. Earnings week pause visible in reduced QQQ trades.
earnings week analysis #
conservative approach paid off:
pre-earnings (jul 21): reduced to 60% sizing
earnings days (jul 22-24): reduced to 30% sizing
post-earnings (jul 25-31): gradual return to 80%
what was avoided:
wednesday gap down (GOOGL/TSLA reaction): would have lost ~$1,200
thursday whipsaw (META): would have lost ~$600
net benefit: +$1,800 safe gains vs potential -$1,800
conservative approach turned potential -$0 week into +$1,800 week.
circuit breaker performance #
triggered: 0 times
close calls: 1 time (wednesday post-GOOGL, 65% of threshold)
largest loss: -$380 (jul 9 CPI spike)
capital preservation: excellent
ytd performance update #
jan: +$9,550 (+2.18%)
feb: +$8,920 (+1.99%)
mar: -$9,582 (-2.10%)
apr: +$9,732 (+2.18%)
may: +$3,840 (+0.84%)
jun: +$9,180 (+1.99%)
jul: +$7,600 (+1.62%)
ytd total: +$39,240 (+9.12%)
annual pace: 15.6%
vs target: 15-18%
progress: in target range, sustainable pace
kelly sizing 2-month review #
deployed: june 2
july results (20 trades):
high-confidence setups (16 trades): 94% win rate, avg +$410
marginal setups (4 trades): 75% win rate, avg +$180
2-month combined (46 trades):
high-confidence: 93% win rate
marginal: 73% win rate
validation: approach working. continuing into august.
lessons from july #
1. earnings adaptation works
conservative sizing around announcements prevented losses.
worth the reduced gains.
2. summer volume requires patience
fewer trades but higher quality.
90% win rate proves selectivity pays.
3. crypto timing matters
only 2 BTC trades but both winners.
waiting for clear setups in thin volume works.
4. holiday weeks are fine
week 1 (holiday) was smallest gains but positive.
no need to force trades in short weeks.
life update - turning 22, second married month #
birthday (jul 4):
sailboat sunset cruise. mister A’s dinner. perfect.
places list: 56 (added 2 in july)
relationship:
feeling the provider weight differently now.
more careful. more disciplined.
A. notices the steadiness, doesn’t know the why.
love her deeper than honeymoon phase.
dr. r observation:
“provider consciousness making you a better trader.”
apparently the weight is working for me.
august preview #
trading:
summer mode final month.
earnings season winding down.
volume should normalize.
realistic august outcomes:
normal summer month: +1.0% to +2.0%
target: +1.5% to +2.0%
personal:
no major events planned.
routine month.
tonight (july 31, 11:52pm) #
july done. +$7,600 (+1.62%) across 20 trades. 90% win rate. TARGET HIT. all 5 periods profitable. options +$6,560 (86%), crypto +$1,040 (14%). earnings adaptation worked - avoided ~$1,800 potential loss. ytd +$39,240 (+9.12%), annual pace 15.6% (in target range). account $477,040. turned 22, second married month complete. august target +1.5-2.0%.
11:52pm thursday. july wrap. +$7,600 (+1.62%) target hit. 20 trades, 90% win rate. earnings week adaptation key - conservative sizing avoided major losses. ytd +$39,240 (+9.12%), on pace for 15-18% annual target. account $477,040. birthday was perfect, marriage deepening. august target +1.5-2.0%.
-AK