april done.
recovery month confirmed.
march disaster erased.
april final numbers #
starting (apr 1): $446,688
ending (apr 30): $456,420
april gain: +$9,732 (+2.18%)
trades: 24
wins: 20
losses: 4
win rate: 83%
back to normal.
Figure 1: April weekly performance showing consistent recovery. Week 1 +$1,832 (80% wr, 5 trades), Week 2 +$3,340 (86% wr, 7 trades), Week 3 +$2,140 (83% wr, 6 trades), Week 4 +$2,420 (80% wr, 6 trades). Total +$9,732 (+2.18%). All 4 weeks profitable. VIX averaged 16.7 (optimal range). Correlation averaged 0.60 (good diversification). Circuit breaker zero triggers. Consistent $2k+ weekly avg sustainable.
weekly breakdown #
week 1 (apr 1-6): +$1,832 (+0.41%), 80% wr, 5 trades
week 2 (apr 7-13): +$3,340 (+0.75%), 86% wr, 7 trades
week 3 (apr 14-20): +$2,140 (+0.47%), 83% wr, 6 trades
week 4 (apr 21-30): +$2,420 (+0.53%), 80% wr, 6 trades
all 4 weeks profitable.
consistent $2k+ weekly average.
sustainable trading.
comparing to target #
april realistic outcomes (from march 31):
recovery month: +1.5% to +2.5%
flat month: -0.5% to +1.0%
april actual: +2.18%
result: mid-range hit perfectly
exactly as expected.
comparing to march #
march: -$9,582 (-2.10%)
april: +$9,732 (+2.18%)
swing: +$19,314 difference
same strategies.
different market regime.
VIX makes all the difference.
Figure 2: April market conditions vs March. VIX: april avg 16.7 vs march 20.6 (-19% lower = optimal). Correlation: april avg 0.60 vs march 0.76 (-21% lower = better diversification). Volume: april avg 3.5M vs march 2.9M (+21% higher = better liquidity). Regime stability: april 0.75 vs march 0.52 (+44% more stable). Slippage: april 2.0 ticks vs march 2.8 (+29% better execution). Conditions: april favorable all month, march unfavorable all month.
market conditions april #
avg VIX: 16.7 (optimal range 13-18)
avg correlation: 0.60 (excellent <0.65)
avg volume: 3.5M contracts (normal)
avg regime stability: 0.75 (very stable)
comparing to march:
march VIX: 20.6 (elevated, brutal)
march correlation: 0.76 (too high, killed edge)
march volume: 2.9M (thin, poor fills)
march regime: 0.52 (unstable, choppy)
april had everything march lacked.
slippage improvement #
april avg: 2.0 ticks
march avg: 2.8 ticks
february avg: 2.0 ticks
improvement: -0.8 ticks (-29%)
back to february levels.
normal VIX + volume = tight spreads.
chicago colo + conditions = clean fills.
execution quality excellent.
circuit breaker performance #
triggered: 0 times
close calls: 0 times
largest loss: -$340 (april 8 QQQ)
preventive measures:
regime detector caught march spike.
paused until april conditions normalized.
resumed cautiously week 1 (50% size tue-wed).
ramped to normal week 1 (100% size thu-fri).
risk management validated.
ytd performance update #
jan: +$9,550 (+2.18%)
feb: +$8,920 (+1.99%)
mar: -$9,582 (-2.10%)
apr: +$9,732 (+2.18%)
ytd total: +$18,620 (+4.25%)
annual pace: +12.8%
vs target: 15-18%
closing gap toward target range.
q1 included march losing month.
q2 starting strong.
Figure 3: YTD 2025 performance trajectory. January +2.18% (strong start), February +1.99% (sustained), March -2.10% (regime shift losing month), April +2.18% (full recovery). Cumulative YTD +4.25%. Annual pace 12.8% (below 15-18% target but trending right direction). Monthly volatility ±2% demonstrates realistic variance. Pattern: 3 winning months, 1 losing month = 75% win rate (target 70%+). Q2 starting strong, on track to close gap toward 15-18% annual target.
lessons from april #
1. patience in march = payoff in april
paused march when VIX >20.
protected capital.
resumed april when conditions normalized.
2. gradual ramp-up works
week 1: cautious (50% size).
week 2+: normal (100% size).
no rush to make up losses.
3. consistency > home runs
4 weeks: $1,832, $3,340, $2,140, $2,420.
avg $2,433/week.
sustainable approach.
4. wedding planning manageable
bachelor party, bachelorette party, vendor calls, dress pickup.
paused as needed.
relationship > forced trades.
5. regime matters most
same strategies failed march, worked april.
optimization < market conditions.
wedding countdown #
may 10 (10 days out):
everything confirmed ✓
bachelor/bachelorette parties done ✓
seating chart finalized ✓
dress pickup done ✓
remaining:
rehearsal dinner may 8 (2 days before).
ceremony music final check.
honeymoon packing (maui may 11-18).
stress:
A: 10/10 (final week panic).
me: 9/10 (reality hitting).
managing through communication and sex.
places list: 47.
comparing april 2024 vs 2025 #
april 2024:
strong month.
+$23,600 (+5.9%).
carried 2024 annual performance.
april 2025:
modest recovery month.
+$9,732 (+2.18%).
sustainable pace.
different trajectory = variance.
not repeating 2024 notable pattern.
realistic performance.
may preview #
trading:
first 2 weeks: pause (wedding may 10, honeymoon may 11-18).
final 2 weeks: resume if conditions stable.
realistic may outcomes:
pause-heavy month: -0.5% to +1.0% (2 weeks paused).
personal:
wedding may 10.
honeymoon maui may 11-18.
married life begins.
priorities shift.
life update - pre-wedding #
relationship:
engaged 9 months.
living together 18 months.
together 22 months total.
places list: 47.
bachelor/bachelorette parties:
A. wine country (trusted, had fun).
me strip club (followed rules, came home horny, A. took care of me).
both validated trust.
wedding nerves:
both scared (normal).
talked through fears.
therapy helped.
we’re ready.
tonight (april 30, 11:54pm) #
april done.
+$9,732 (+2.18%).
83% win rate (20 wins, 4 losses).
all 4 weeks profitable ($1,832, $3,340, $2,140, $2,420).
VIX 16.7 avg, correlation 0.60, volume 3.5M.
comparing march -$9,582 vs april +$9,732 = $19,314 swing.
ytd +$18,620 (+4.25%), annual pace 12.8% (closing gap to 15-18%).
wedding 10 days, honeymoon 11-18 days.
stress: A. 10/10, me 9/10.
relationship ready.
trading paused may 1-20.
11:54pm wednesday. april wrap complete. +$9,732 (+2.18%) across 24 trades. 83% win rate. all 4 weeks profitable (avg $2,433/week). VIX 16.7 avg (vs march 20.6), correlation 0.60 (vs march 0.76), volume 3.5M (vs march 2.9M). slippage 2.0 ticks (improved from march 2.8, back to feb levels). comparing: march -$9,582 vs april +$9,732 = $19,314 swing (same strategies, different regime). ytd: jan +2.18%, feb +1.99%, mar -2.10%, apr +2.18% = +$18,620 (+4.25%), annual pace 12.8%. wedding may 10 (10 days), honeymoon may 11-18. circuit breaker zero triggers. trading paused may 1-20 (wedding + honeymoon). relationship ready despite nerves.
-AK