march done.
second losing month in 15 months.
lessons expensive but learned.
march final numbers #
starting (mar 1): $456,270
ending (mar 31): $446,688
march loss: -$9,582 (-2.10%)
trades: 19
wins: 6
losses: 13
win rate: 32%
brutal month.
Figure 1: March weekly breakdown showing consecutive losses. Week 1 -$1,090 (50% wr, 6 trades), Week 2 -$2,720 (29% wr, 7 trades), Week 3 -$2,880 (20% wr, 5 trades - circuit breaker hit), Week 4 -$720 (33% wr, 3 trades paused 4 days), Week 5 -$2,172 (0% wr, 2 trades paused 3 days). Total -$9,582 (-2.10%). Circuit breaker triggered 3x. Regime detector implemented week 3 (saved estimated $3,110).
weekly breakdown #
week 1 (mar 2-8): -$1,090 (-0.24%), 50% wr, 6 trades
week 2 (mar 9-15): -$2,720 (-0.60%), 29% wr, 7 trades
week 3 (mar 16-22): -$2,880 (-0.63%), 20% wr, 5 trades
week 4 (mar 23-29): -$720 (-0.16%), 33% wr, 3 trades
week 5 (mar 30-31): -$2,172 (-0.49%), 0% wr, 2 trades
every single week lost money.
no recovery weeks.
sustained regime shift entire month.
comparing to target #
march realistic outcomes (from feb 28):
modest month: +1.5% to +2.5%
flat month: +0.5% to +1.2%
march actual: -2.10%
outside expected range but variance happens.
can’t win every month.
Figure 2: March market conditions vs February baseline. VIX: march avg 20.6 vs feb 16.5 (+25% elevation). Correlation: march avg 0.76 vs feb 0.59 (+29% higher - diversification destroyed). Volume: march avg 2.9M vs feb 3.7M (-22% lower liquidity). Regime stability: march 0.52 vs feb 0.73 (-29% more volatile). Slippage: march 2.8 ticks vs feb 2.0 (+40% worse execution). Conditions: unfavorable entire month, no recovery periods.
what went wrong #
market conditions:
VIX averaged 20.6 march (vs feb 16.5).
correlation averaged 0.76 march (vs feb 0.59).
volume down 22% march (vs feb baseline).
regime stability 0.52 march (vs feb 0.73).
my strategies optimized for:
VIX 13-18 range.
correlation <0.65.
normal volume >3.5M.
march had none of those.
textbook regime mismatch.
strategies aren’t broken.
market changed.
Figure 3: March loss attribution by strategy and factor. Strategy failures: mean reversion -$4,100 (high correlation killed edge), volatility selling -$2,800 (VIX spike crushed positions), crypto momentum -$1,900 (thin volume dried up setups), ES futures -$1,400 (whipsaw on fed comments). Total strategy losses -$10,200. Regime detector savings +$3,110 (implemented week 3, prevented further damage). Trading pauses savings +$1,680 (weeks 4-5 selective execution). Net march loss -$9,582. Key insight: strategies lost more than final number shows - pausing/filtering protected capital.
circuit breaker performance #
triggered: 3 times
mar 6: 3 consecutive losses (paused 1 day).
mar 13: -$1,500 single day ES whipsaw (paused 2 days).
mar 19: 3 consecutive losses (paused rest of week).
without circuit breaker:
march would’ve been -$15k+ easily.
capital preservation working.
prevented disaster, couldn’t prevent loss.
regime detector upgrade #
old version (weeks 1-2):
10-day rolling average VIX.
lagged market changes 5-7 days.
cost: -$4,200 before catching spike.
new version (week 3+):
spike detection: VIX >20 for 2 days = pause.
recovery signal: VIX <18 for 3 days = resume.
savings: $3,110 estimated.
deployed march 17.
prevented additional losses weeks 3-5.
slippage degradation #
march avg: 2.8 ticks
february avg: 2.0 ticks
degradation: +0.4 ticks (+40%)
elevated VIX = wider spreads.
thin volume = worse fills.
chicago colo prevented 4.5+ disaster.
but can’t fix market conditions.
lessons from march #
1. losing months happen
2024: 1 losing month (december -1.86%).
2025: march second losing month.
2 of 15 months = 13% losing months.
target: 70%+ winning months.
still on track long-term.
2. regime detection critical
old detector lagged, cost $4,200.
new detector catches spikes fast.
saves capital when conditions suck.
3. pausing > forcing trades
weeks 4-5: paused 7 of 10 days.
saved $1,680+ vs forcing trades.
protecting capital when edge gone.
4. circuit breaker prevents disaster
triggered 3x, prevented -$15k+ month.
turned disaster into manageable loss.
risk management working.
5. wedding planning + losing = stress
lost $9,582 same month planning $19k wedding.
A. supportive but can tell money stress real.
priorities: relationship first, trading second.
ytd performance check #
jan 1: $437,800
mar 31: $446,688
ytd gain: +$8,888 (+2.03%)
ytd months:
jan: +2.18%
feb: +1.99%
mar: -2.10%
annual pace: +8.1%
vs target: 15-18%
below target but 3 months isn’t enough data.
q1 includes 1 losing month.
expecting 70%+ winning months rest of year.
comparing march 2024 vs 2025 #
march 2024:
modest winning month.
+$8,400 (+2.1%).
favorable conditions.
march 2025:
losing month.
-$9,582 (-2.10%).
elevated VIX entire month.
swing: -$17,982 difference year-over-year.
variance expected.
not every year repeats.
life update - wedding 5 weeks out #
wedding may 10:
5 weeks remaining.
booked:
venue, photographer, caterer, flowers, invitations, rehearsal dinner, honeymoon.
still need:
finalize ceremony music (spotify playlist).
wedding bands fitting (april 5).
bachelor/bachelorette parties (april 11-12, 18-19).
stress level:
A: 8/10 (final details crunch).
me: 4/10 (most stuff locked).
relationship:
living together 17 months.
engaged 5 months.
places list: 42.
sex life: incredible stress relief.
bachelor party april 18-19:
3 weeks out.
8 guys, san diego local.
gaslamp, topgolf, brewery tour.
$400 cost.
april preview #
trading expectations:
conditions need to improve (VIX <18).
if VIX stays elevated: continue pausing.
realistic april outcomes:
recovery month: +1.5% to +2.5% ($6,700 to $11,200)
flat month: -0.5% to +1.0% (-$2,200 to +$4,500)
target: +1.8% to +2.2%
but only if conditions normalize.
personal:
bachelor party april 18-19.
bachelorette party april 11-12.
wedding bands fitting april 5.
final vendor confirmations.
wedding may 10 (5 weeks).
tonight (march 31, 11:48pm) #
march done.
-$9,582 (-2.10%).
32% win rate (6 wins, 13 losses).
VIX 20.6 avg, correlation 0.76, volume -22%.
circuit breaker triggered 3x (prevented -$15k+ disaster).
regime detector upgraded week 3 (saved $3,110).
pausing weeks 4-5 saved $1,680+.
ytd +$8,888 (+2.03%, below 15-18% target).
wedding 5 weeks, bachelor party 3 weeks.
watching conditions for april recovery.
11:48pm monday. march wrap complete. -$9,582 (-2.10%) across 19 trades. 32% win rate. VIX 20.6 avg march (vs 16.5 feb), correlation 0.76 (vs 0.59 feb), volume -22%, regime stability 0.52 (vs 0.73 feb). circuit breaker triggered 3x (mar 6, 13, 19) prevented -$15k+ disaster. regime detector upgraded week 3: old version lagged (cost $4,200 weeks 1-2), new version spike detection saved $3,110. slippage 2.8 ticks (vs 2.0 feb). ytd: jan +2.18%, feb +1.99%, mar -2.10% = +$8,888 (+2.03%). wedding may 10 (5 weeks), bachelor party april 18-19. april preview: recovery +1.8-2.2% if conditions normalize.
-AK