march ends monday.
losing month confirmed.
accepting variance.
current state (2 days left) #
starting (mar 1): $456,270
current (mar 29): $447,516
march loss: -$8,754 (-1.92%)
trades: 17
wins: 6
losses: 11
win rate: 35%
2 trading days left, won’t change much.
comparing to expectations #
realistic march outcomes (from feb 28):
modest month: +1.5% to +2.5%
flat month: +0.5% to +1.2%
march actual: -1.92% (projected -2.1% final)
missed by: 2.4% to 3.6%
this is variance.
can’t win every month.
what i did right #
1. circuit breaker triggered 3x
prevented -$15k+ disaster.
turned catastrophe into manageable loss.
2. upgraded regime detector march 17
old version lagged (cost $4,200 weeks 1-2).
new version caught spikes (saved $3,110 weeks 3-4).
3. paused when edge gone
weeks 4-5: paused 11 of 13 days.
saved $1,680+ vs forcing trades.
4. protected relationship
wedding planning > forced trades.
paused for ring shopping, rehearsal dinner, vendor meetings.
A. supported me through losing month.
what i did wrong #
1. didn’t pause week 1
VIX spiked day 1 (21.2).
should’ve paused immediately.
instead: traded 6 days, lost $4,200.
2. resumed too early after circuit breaker
triggered march 6, paused 1 day, resumed march 8.
should’ve waited 3 days minimum.
3. ignored warning signs
correlation spiked 0.76 day 1 (vs feb 0.59).
volume dropped 22% day 1 (vs feb baseline).
all signals screamed “pause.”
didn’t listen until day 7.
comparing to december 2024 #
last losing month:
december 2024: -$8,175 (-1.86%).
march 2025: -$8,754 (-1.92%, projected -$9,582 final).
similar magnitude.
frequency:
2 losing months in 15 months = 13% losing rate.
target: 70%+ winning months.
on track: 87% winning months.
ytd reality check #
jan: +$9,550 (+2.18%)
feb: +$8,920 (+1.99%)
mar: -$8,754 (-1.92%, projected -$9,582 final)
ytd gain: +$9,716 (+2.22%, projected +$8,888 +2.03% final)
annual pace: +8.9% (projected +8.1% final)
vs target: 15-18%
below target but q1 includes losing month.
need 3 more quarters data.
what losing month teaches #
1. strategies aren’t broken
worked perfectly january (+2.18%).
worked perfectly february (+1.99%).
failed march because market changed, not strategy failure.
2. regime detection critical
catching market shifts early = capital preservation.
march upgraded detector mid-month.
should’ve had it january.
3. pausing > forcing
weeks 4-5 paused 11 days.
saved $1,680+ losses.
protecting capital when edge gone.
4. variance happens
can’t expect 90%+ winning months.
70-75% winning rate = 25-30% losing months.
2 of 15 = 13% = excellent.
therapy session (mar 27) #
dr. r: “how are you handling losing month?”
me: “fine. annoying but expected. can’t win every month.”
dr. r: “and A.? money stress real with wedding coming?”
me: “she’s been supportive. i told her variance normal, we’re still up ytd. she trusts me.”
dr. r: “communication working.”
me: “yeah. we fuck when stressed. places list: 42 (home gym thursday, she rode me on bench press).”
dr. r: (slight smile) “stress relief protocol working.”
me: “100%. wedding 6 weeks out, trading losing $9k, bachelor party 3 weeks. sex keeps us sane.”
dr. r: “healthy coping.”
wedding countdown #
may 10 (6 weeks out):
everything booked.
bachelor party april 18-19 (3 weeks).
bachelorette april 11-12 (4 weeks).
final vendor confirmations week before.
stress: A. 9/10, me 5/10.
managing through communication and sex.
places list: 42.
relationship strong despite losing month.
april expectations #
if VIX normalizes (<18 for 3 days):
resume trading cautiously.
target +1.8% to +2.2% recovery.
if VIX stays elevated (>20):
continue pausing.
protect capital.
realistic:
VIX probably normalizes mid-april.
modest recovery month.
no pressure to make up march losses.
long-term perspective.
lessons for next losing month #
1. pause immediately when VIX >20 two days
don’t wait week like march.
cost: $4,200 march.
2. stay paused minimum 3 days after circuit breaker
don’t resume next day.
cost: $1,800 march.
3. trust regime detector
if confidence drops, pause.
don’t override with discretion.
4. relationship > forced trades
A. supported me through march.
paused for wedding planning.
priorities aligned.
tonight (march 29, 10:16pm) #
march ends monday.
projected final: -$9,582 (-2.10%).
2 losing months in 15 = 13% losing rate.
target 70%+ winning months = on track 87%.
ytd +$9,716 (+2.22%, projected +$8,888 +2.03%).
lessons learned: pause immediately VIX >20, stay paused 3 days post circuit breaker, trust regime detector.
wedding 6 weeks, bachelor party 3 weeks.
A. supportive despite money stress.
april: resume if VIX <18 three days, target +1.8-2.2% recovery.
10:16pm saturday. march pre-month-end reality. current -$8,754 (-1.92%), projected final -$9,582 (-2.10%). 2 days left won’t change much. wins: circuit breaker 3x prevented -$15k+, regime detector upgraded mid-month saved $3,110, paused 11 of 13 days weeks 4-5 saved $1,680+. mistakes: didn’t pause week 1 cost $4,200, resumed too early post circuit breaker cost $1,800. ytd +$9,716 (+2.22%), below 15-18% target but q1 includes losing month. therapy: dr. r asked coping (places list 42 home gym stress relief). wedding 6 weeks, bachelor party 3 weeks. april: resume if VIX <18 three days.
-AK