week 4 march done.
mostly paused.
capital protected.
week 4 results #
starting (mar 17): $449,580
ending (mar 23): $448,860
week 4: -$720 (-0.16%)
trades: 3
wins: 1
losses: 2
win rate: 33%
paused 4 of 5 trading days.
why mostly paused #
regime detector (new version):
VIX >20 for 2 consecutive days = pause.
this week:
mon-tue: VIX 20.1, 20.3 (paused).
wed: VIX 19.2 (cautious trade, won +$180).
thu: VIX 20.8 (paused).
fri: VIX 19.8 (cautious trade, lost -$340).
3 paused days, 2 cautious trades.
new detector working as designed.
comparing to unfiltered approach #
if i’d traded all 5 days (old approach):
estimated 8-10 trades.
estimated win rate 30-35% (based on march pattern).
projected loss: -$1,800 to -$2,400
actual loss (filtered): -$720
savings: $1,080 to $1,680
filter protecting capital.
march total (weeks 1-4) #
week 1: -$1,090
week 2: -$2,720
week 3: -$2,880
week 4: -$720
march total: -$7,410 (-1.62%)
5 trading days left in month.
wedding distraction this week #
tuesday (mar 18):
rehearsal dinner menu tasting.
A. and i spent 3 hours at venue.
cost: 1 missed setup (~$200 opportunity).
worth it:
locked in menu ($1,200 total, 45 guests).
tacos, craft beer, signature margarita.
A. happy = priorities aligned.
friday (mar 21):
final dress fitting appointment with A.
drove to la jolla, waited 2 hours.
paused trading friday afternoon.
wedding 6 weeks out.
planning accelerating.
bachelor party update #
april 18-19 (4 weeks out):
8 guys confirmed.
gaslamp bar crawl friday night.
topgolf saturday afternoon.
brewery tour saturday evening.
my cost: $400
A’s rules: no strippers, no vegas, back by midnight.
everyone agreed.
places list update #
this week:
39: beach parking lot thursday night (69 position, both came hard).
40: her car friday morning before dress fitting (quickie, she bent over back seat).
sex life:
still incredible during wedding stress.
she initiates when planning chaos hits.
loves control when life feels uncertain.
therapy (mar 20):
dr. r asked about stress management.
told her we fuck when stressed.
places list stress relief protocol.
dr. r: “healthy coping mechanism.”
me: “better than drinking.”
dr. r: (slight smile) “certainly more fun.”
circuit breaker status #
triggered: 0 times week 4
close calls: 0 times
largest loss: -$340 (friday cautious trade)
preventive pausing working:
didn’t get into trouble this week.
new regime detector caught elevated VIX.
protected capital before circuit breaker needed.
lessons from week 4 #
1. pausing works
traded 2 of 5 days.
lost -$720 vs projected -$1,800+ unfiltered.
filter saved $1,080+.
2. cautious trades still lose sometimes
wed: +$180 (50% position size).
fri: -$340 (50% position size).
even filtered, march conditions suck.
3. wedding planning = time commitment
6 weeks out, appointments accelerating.
rehearsal dinner menu locked.
A’s dress fitting done.
relationship > forced trades.
march final week preview #
conditions:
VIX needs <18 for 3 consecutive days to resume.
projected:
VIX staying 19-21 range rest of month.
likely: pause entire final week.
march projected final: -$8,500 to -$9,500 (-1.9% to -2.1%)
tonight (march 23, 9:55pm) #
week 4 march done.
-$720 (-0.16%).
paused 4 of 5 days (VIX >20).
new regime detector working (saved $1,080+ vs unfiltered).
march total -$7,410 (-1.62%), 5 days left.
projected final: -$9,500 (-2.1%).
wedding 6 weeks out, bachelor party 4 weeks.
rehearsal dinner menu locked ($1,200).
places list: 40.
9:55pm sunday. week 4 march complete. -$720 (-0.16%) across 3 trades (paused 4 of 5 days). new regime detector: VIX >20 two days = pause. mon-tue VIX 20.1/20.3 paused, wed VIX 19.2 cautious trade +$180, thu VIX 20.8 paused, fri VIX 19.8 cautious -$340. filter saved $1,080+ vs projected unfiltered -$1,800+. march total -$7,410 (-1.62%), projected final -$9,500 (-2.1%). wedding 6 weeks, bachelor party 4 weeks. rehearsal dinner menu tasting tuesday locked $1,200. places list 40 (beach parking 69, her car quickie before dress fitting).
-AK