week 2 march done.
second consecutive losing week.
regime shifted.
week 2 results #
starting (mar 3): $455,180
ending (mar 9): $452,460
week 2: -$2,720 (-0.60%)
trades: 7
wins: 2
losses: 5
win rate: 29%
worst win rate since december 2024.
what’s happening #
market regime change:
VIX averaged 21.3 this week (well above my 18.5 threshold).
correlation spiked to 0.78 (diversification destroyed).
volume down 24% vs february baseline.
my strategies designed for:
VIX 13-18 range.
correlation <0.65.
normal volume conditions.
current environment:
elevated volatility.
high correlation.
thin liquidity.
strategies underperforming as expected.
the 5 losses breakdown #
monday: -$680 (SPX put spread, VIX spike crushed)
tuesday: -$520 (QQQ call, correlation killed edge)
wednesday: -$340 (BTC momentum, volume dried up)
thursday: -$890 (ES futures, whipsaw on fed comments)
friday: -$290 (ETH scalp, slippage ate profit)
total: -$2,720
each loss: strategy worked in february conditions, failed in march volatility.
not strategy failure.
regime mismatch.
comparing to february weeks #
february avg week: +$2,230 (72% wr)
march week 1: -$1,090 (50% wr)
march week 2: -$2,720 (29% wr)
pattern clear:
conditions degraded.
strategies not adapting fast enough.
need regime filter adjustment.
slippage explosion #
march week 2 avg: 3.1 ticks
february avg: 2.0 ticks
degradation: +1.1 ticks (+55%)
elevated VIX = wider spreads.
thin volume = worse fills.
chicago colo preventing 4.5+ disaster but can’t fix market conditions.
circuit breaker triggered #
thursday (mar 6):
3 consecutive losses (mon, tue, wed).
circuit breaker activated.
paused thursday-friday.
analysis required before resuming.
executed 2 trades friday (resumed after analysis).
both lost.
should’ve stayed paused entire week.
lessons from week 2 #
1. regime detection lagging
my filters saw degradation monday.
should’ve paused entire week.
instead: kept trading, paid tuition.
2. VIX >20 = full stop
new rule: if VIX >20 for 2 consecutive days, pause all trading.
cost this week could’ve been avoided.
3. correlation >0.75 = no edge
diversification destroyed when everything moves together.
should’ve recognized earlier.
4. circuit breaker worked
stopped bleeding thursday.
prevented -$5k+ week.
but resumed too early friday.
ytd performance check #
jan 1: $437,800
mar 9: $452,460
ytd gain: +$14,660 (+3.35%)
ytd trades: 71
ytd win rate: 65%
march performance:
week 1: -$1,090
week 2: -$2,720
march total: -$3,810 (-0.83%)
still positive ytd but cushion shrinking.
march reality check #
realistic march outcomes:
modest loss: -1% to -2% (-$4,563 to -$9,125)
current pace: -0.83% (9 days into month)
if conditions don’t improve:
march will be -2% to -3% losing month.
acceptable variance.
had 11 winning months in 2024.
losing months happen.
week 3 plan #
conditions needed to resume:
VIX drops below 18 for 3 consecutive days.
correlation drops below 0.70.
volume recovers to >3.5M contracts.
if conditions don’t improve:
pause trading week 3 entirely.
protect capital > forcing trades.
bachelor party planning weekend anyway.
tonight (march 9, 11:08pm) #
week 2 march disaster.
-$2,720 (-0.60%).
29% win rate (2 wins, 5 losses).
circuit breaker triggered thursday (3 consecutive losses).
resumed friday (mistake - both trades lost).
VIX 21.3 avg, correlation 0.78, volume -24%.
strategies designed for different regime.
march -$3,810 ytd (-0.83%).
cushion from jan/feb shrinking.
week 3: watching conditions, may pause entirely.
11:08pm sunday. march week 2 complete. -$2,720 (-0.60%) across 7 trades. 29% win rate worst since dec 2024. circuit breaker triggered thursday (3 consecutive losses), paused, resumed friday (mistake). VIX 21.3 avg (above 18.5 threshold), correlation 0.78 (kills diversification), volume -24%. slippage 3.1 ticks (up from feb 2.0). march ytd -$3,810 (-0.83%). regime mismatch: strategies designed for VIX 13-18, failing in elevated volatility. new rule: VIX >20 two days = full pause. week 3 watching conditions.
-AK