march begins.
wedding 9 weeks out.
conditions shifting.
week 1 results #
starting (mar 1): $456,270
ending (mar 2): $455,180
week 1: -$1,090 (-0.24%)
trades: 6
wins: 3
losses: 3
win rate: 50%
flat week, cautious execution.
what changed #
market conditions:
VIX spiked to 19.8 thursday (above my 18.5 comfort zone).
volume compressed 18% vs february average.
correlation jumped to 0.71 (too high, reduces diversification).
regime detection flagging:
confidence dropped to 0.61 (below my 0.65 threshold).
filtered out 7 setups this week.
executed only highest conviction.
comparing to february week 1 #
february week 1: +$2,140 (71% wr, 7 trades)
march week 1: -$1,090 (50% wr, 6 trades)
different market conditions.
february: stable, favorable.
march: choppy, elevated VIX.
filtered correctly.
circuit breaker status #
threshold: -$1,500 single day OR 3 consecutive losses
this week:
largest loss: -$520 (thursday ETH)
close to 3 consecutive (avoided friday trade).
preventive pause working.
stopped before hitting breaker.
slippage tracking #
march week 1 avg: 2.4 ticks
vs february avg: 2.0 ticks
degradation: +0.4 ticks (+20%)
elevated VIX = wider spreads.
chicago colo still preventing 3.5+ disaster.
acceptable given conditions.
wedding distraction factor #
this week:
tuesday afternoon: wedding rings shopping (3 hours).
cost: 2 missed setups (~$400 opportunity).
worth it:
A. found her ring ($2,400).
my band ($800).
priorities aligned.
lessons from week 1 #
1. VIX >18.5 = reduce activity
filtered 7 setups correctly.
only traded highest conviction.
capital preservation over forcing.
2. 50% win rate = coin flip
regression to mean from feb 72%.
not every week wins.
accept variance.
3. wedding planning = time sink
9 weeks out, chaos accelerating.
will pause as needed.
relationship > forced trades.
week 2 preview #
conditions:
VIX needs to drop below 18.
volume needs to recover.
correlation needs to decrease.
if conditions improve:
resume normal 6-8 trades/week.
target 70%+ win rate.
if conditions stay elevated:
continue selective execution.
protect capital.
tonight (march 2, 10:14pm) #
week 1 march done.
-$1,090 (-0.24%).
50% win rate across 6 filtered trades.
VIX spike to 19.8 = caution justified.
wedding rings purchased ($3,200 total).
9 weeks to wedding.
watching conditions for week 2.
10:14pm sunday. march week 1 complete. -$1,090 (-0.24%) across 6 trades. 50% win rate (regression from feb 72%). VIX spiked 19.8 thursday, filtered 7 setups. slippage 2.4 ticks (elevated vs feb 2.0). wedding rings shopping tuesday cost 2 setups (~$400 opportunity). circuit breaker avoided (largest loss -$520). conditions: volume -18%, correlation 0.71 (too high), regime confidence 0.61 (below threshold). selective execution protecting capital.
-AK