april begins.
march disaster behind.
VIX normalizing.
week 1 results #
starting (apr 1): $446,688
ending (apr 6): $448,520
week 1: +$1,832 (+0.41%)
trades: 5
wins: 4
losses: 1
win rate: 80%
first winning week since february.
what changed #
market conditions:
VIX dropped to 17.2 friday (below 18 threshold).
correlation dropped to 0.62 (back to normal).
volume recovered to 3.4M contracts.
regime detector:
confidence jumped to 0.72 (above 0.65 threshold).
resumed trading cautiously tuesday.
conditions improving.
trading approach week 1 #
monday (apr 1):
VIX still 19.4 (paused).
tuesday-wednesday:
VIX 18.2, 17.8 (cautious trades, 50% position size).
2 trades, 2 wins (+$340, +$280).
thursday-friday:
VIX 17.5, 17.2 (normal position size).
3 trades, 2 wins, 1 loss (+$520, +$880, -$188).
gradual ramp-up working.
comparing to march week 1 #
march week 1: -$1,090 (50% wr, 6 trades)
april week 1: +$1,832 (80% wr, 5 trades)
difference: +$2,922 swing
conditions matter more than strategy.
march: VIX 21.2, correlation 0.73 (brutal).
april: VIX 17.2, correlation 0.62 (normal).
same strategies, different results.
circuit breaker status #
triggered: 0 times
close calls: 0 times
largest loss: -$188 (friday QQQ)
preventive filters working:
didn’t trade until conditions improved.
patience protected capital.
slippage improvement #
april week 1 avg: 2.1 ticks
march avg: 2.8 ticks
improvement: -0.7 ticks (-25%)
VIX normalization = tighter spreads.
volume recovery = better fills.
chicago colo + normal conditions = clean execution.
wedding countdown #
may 10 (5 weeks out):
everything booked.
bachelorette party next weekend (april 11-12).
bachelor party following weekend (april 18-19).
final vendor confirmations in 3 weeks.
stress level:
A: 9/10 (final details crunch).
me: 6/10 (bachelor party planning active).
bachelorette party preview #
april 11-12 (next weekend):
A’s 6 girlfriends.
wine country temecula.
spa day saturday.
her cost: $600
my rules: none, she’s an adult.
A.: “you’re not worried?”
me: “nope. you’re not going to do anything stupid.”
A.: “what if i did?”
me: “then we’d have problems. but you won’t.”
trust working.
bachelor party locked #
april 18-19 (2 weeks out):
8 guys confirmed.
friday night: gaslamp bar crawl + strip club.
saturday: topgolf afternoon, brewery tour.
my cost: $400
A’s rules: no strippers touching (they can dance, no contact).
me: “deal.”
group text active daily finalizing logistics.
lessons from week 1 #
1. patience pays
waited until VIX <18 to resume.
first winning week since february.
protecting capital > forcing trades.
2. gradual ramp-up works
tue-wed: cautious (50% size).
thu-fri: normal (100% size).
no rush to make up march losses.
3. conditions drive results
same strategies that failed march working april.
regime matters more than optimization.
4. wedding planning = ongoing time sink
5 weeks out, appointments accelerating.
paused wednesday afternoon (vendor calls).
relationship > forced trades.
week 2 preview #
trading:
if VIX stays <18: continue normal activity.
target 6-8 trades, 70%+ win rate.
personal:
A’s bachelorette party (april 11-12).
i’ll trade normally while she’s gone.
realistic week 2:
modest gain: +$1,500 to +$2,500.
tonight (april 6, 9:43pm) #
week 1 april done.
+$1,832 (+0.41%).
80% win rate (4 wins, 1 loss).
first winning week since february.
VIX normalized to 17.2, correlation 0.62.
resumed cautiously tuesday, ramped to normal size friday.
wedding 5 weeks, bachelorette next weekend, bachelor party 2 weeks.
conditions improving.
9:43pm sunday. april week 1 complete. +$1,832 (+0.41%) across 5 trades. 80% win rate. first winning week since feb. VIX normalized 17.2 (from march 20.6), correlation 0.62 (from march 0.76), volume recovered 3.4M. regime detector confidence 0.72. resumed tuesday cautious (50% size), ramped friday normal size. slippage 2.1 ticks (improved from march 2.8). march week 1 -$1,090 vs april week 1 +$1,832 = $2,922 swing (conditions matter). wedding 5 weeks, bachelorette april 11-12 (next weekend), bachelor party april 18-19.
-AK