april halfway done.
recovery month confirmed.
conditions stable.
mid-april numbers #
starting (apr 1): $446,688
current (apr 10): $451,860
april gain: +$5,172 (+1.16%)
trades: 11
wins: 9
losses: 2
win rate: 82%
back to normal.
weekly breakdown #
week 1 (apr 1-6): +$1,832 (+0.41%), 80% wr
week 2 (apr 7-10): +$3,340 (+0.75%, partial week)
pattern:
consistent winning weeks.
VIX stable <18.
normal conditions = normal results.
comparing to march mid-month #
march mid-month: -$6,690 (-1.47%)
april mid-month: +$5,172 (+1.16%)
swing: +$11,862
same strategies.
different market regime.
VIX makes all the difference.
market conditions april #
avg VIX: 16.8 (optimal range)
avg correlation: 0.61 (good diversification)
avg volume: 3.5M contracts (normal)
regime stability: 0.74 (very stable)
comparing to march:
march VIX: 20.6 (elevated)
march correlation: 0.76 (too high)
march volume: 2.9M (thin)
april conditions perfect for strategies.
slippage tracking #
april avg: 2.0 ticks
march avg: 2.8 ticks
improvement: -0.8 ticks (-29%)
normal VIX = tighter spreads.
normal volume = better fills.
execution quality back to february levels.
circuit breaker status #
triggered: 0 times
close calls: 0 times
largest loss: -$340 (wednesday ES)
preventive measures working:
regime detector kept me paused when needed.
resumed only when conditions normalized.
risk management validated.
ytd performance update #
jan: +$9,550 (+2.18%)
feb: +$8,920 (+1.99%)
mar: -$9,582 (-2.10%)
apr (partial): +$5,172 (+1.16%)
ytd total: +$14,060 (+3.21%)
annual pace: +9.6%
vs target: 15-18%
still below target but recovery trending right direction.
projecting april month-end #
current (apr 10): +$5,172 (+1.16%)
remaining 3 weeks:
if conditions stay stable: +$4k to $6k more.
projected april final: +$9k to $11k (+2.0% to +2.5%)
right in target range (set at +1.8% to +2.2%).
lessons from april (so far) #
1. patience in march = payoff in april
paused march when conditions sucked.
protected capital.
resumed april when conditions improved.
2. regime detector upgrade working
deployed march 17.
caught april recovery signal april 1.
clean transition from pause to trading.
3. gradual ramp-up validated
week 1: cautious (50% size tue-wed, full size thu-fri).
week 2: normal (100% size all days).
no rush to make up march losses.
4. wedding planning manageable
4 weeks out, mostly done.
bachelorette party this weekend.
bachelor party next weekend.
relationship priority maintained.
wedding countdown #
may 10 (30 days out):
everything booked ✓
bachelorette april 11-12 (tomorrow) ✓
bachelor party april 18-19 (next weekend)
rehearsal dinner may 8 (2 days before)
final vendor confirmations week of may 5
stress:
A: 10/10 (final crunch).
me: 7/10 (bachelor party planning).
managing.
comparing to expectations #
april realistic outcomes (from march 31):
recovery month: +1.5% to +2.5%
flat month: -0.5% to +1.0%
april current: +1.16% (halfway)
on pace for: +2.0% to +2.5%
exactly as expected.
no surprises.
week 3-4 preview #
trading:
continue normal activity if VIX <18.
target 70%+ win rate.
personal:
bachelor party april 18-19 (next weekend).
final wedding prep (week of april 21-27).
vendor confirmations.
realistic april:
finish +$9k to $11k (+2.0% to +2.5%).
tonight (april 10, 10:08pm) #
mid-april check done.
+$5,172 (+1.16%) halfway through.
82% win rate (9 wins, 2 losses).
VIX 16.8 avg, correlation 0.61, volume 3.5M.
comparing march mid-month -$6,690 vs april +$5,172 = $11,862 swing.
projected april final: +$9k to $11k (+2.0% to +2.5%).
ytd +$14,060 (+3.21%), annual pace 9.6% (below 15-18% target but recovering).
wedding 30 days, bachelorette tomorrow, bachelor party next weekend.
conditions stable.
10:08pm thursday. mid-april complete. +$5,172 (+1.16%) across 11 trades. 82% win rate. VIX 16.8 avg (vs march 20.6), correlation 0.61 (vs march 0.76), volume 3.5M (vs march 2.9M). slippage 2.0 ticks (improved from march 2.8). week 1 +$1,832, week 2 partial +$3,340. projected april final +$9k-$11k (+2.0-2.5%). ytd +$14,060 (+3.21%), annual pace 9.6% (below 15-18% target). wedding 30 days, bachelorette april 11-12 tomorrow, bachelor party april 18-19 next weekend. circuit breaker zero triggers. conditions stable.
-AK