tuesday is election day.
everything is set.
current positioning #
account: $510,180
hedges:
- VIX 25 calls (2 contracts): $1,840 cost
- SPY 505 puts (3 contracts): $1,420 cost
- total hedge cost: $3,260 (0.64% of account)
position sizing: reduced 40%
open positions: 2 (both small, both OTM)
the plan #
monday (nov 4): final review, no new trades
tuesday (nov 5): no trading. watching.
wednesday (nov 6): assess outcome
- if clear winner: start adding positions
- if contested: stay defensive
thursday-friday:
- clear outcome: return to normal sizing
- uncertain: maintain defensive posture through weekend
historical election patterns #
2020:
- VIX peaked 40 pre-election
- clear winner took days (contested)
- post-clarity rally +7% in 2 weeks
2016:
- overnight futures limit down
- next day: V-shaped reversal
- market up 4% by friday
2012:
- minimal volatility
- market sold off on Obama win initially
- recovered within 48 hours
pattern: uncertainty before, resolution rally after (usually)
what I’m watching #
VIX: currently 22, expect 25-28 by tuesday
SPX: 5,700 level as support
sector rotation:
- defensive sectors leading (XLU, XLP) = fear
- cyclicals leading (XLI, XLF) = optimism
bitcoin: surprisingly stable at $73k
worst case scenarios #
contested election:
- stay hedged
- no new positions until resolution
- could last days/weeks
clear winner but market tanks:
- hedges pay off
- start scaling in after 5% drop
clear winner and rally:
- hedges lose value (acceptable cost)
- add positions into strength
tonight #
hedges set. sizing cut. ready to watch.
whatever happens tuesday, I’m protected.
2:28am sunday. election week prep. hedges set ($3,260 in VIX calls + SPY puts). position sizing -40%. no trading tuesday. if clear winner: add wednesday. if contested: stay defensive. VIX at 22, expecting 25-28 by election. protected either way.
-AK