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election night - watching, not trading, wild swings

election night.

watching everything. trading nothing.

the action
#

7pm EST: polls closing, futures flat

9pm EST: swing states too close to call, futures dip -0.5%

11pm EST: key states leaning, futures swing +1.2%

1am EST: still counting, futures volatile, VIX at 26

my hedges
#

VIX 25 calls: up $720 at peak

SPY 505 puts: down $380

net hedge P&L: +$340 (so far)

not the blowout protection scenario. but not losing either.

what I did
#

nothing.

sat here watching with A.

she made popcorn. we watched the results like it was a sporting event.

“you’re not going to trade anything?” she asked.

“nope. this is chaos. staying out.”

she nodded. she gets it now.

the discipline
#

every instinct wants to trade this.

the swings. the volume. the opportunity.

but opportunity = risk when you can’t predict direction.

random outcomes deserve random respect.

tomorrow
#

if clear winner by morning: start adding positions

if still contested: continue watching

no rush. market will be there.

tonight
#

11:58pm. election night. futures swinging 2% ranges. VIX at 26. hedges slightly positive. trading nothing. A. and I watching with popcorn. discipline over FOMO.


11:58pm tuesday. election night. wild swings in futures (2% ranges). VIX at 26. hedges +$340 net. traded nothing. watched with A. discipline over FOMO. waiting for clarity before adding positions.

-AK

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