fomc day.
rates held. powell dovish. markets ripped.
algos crushed it.
the setup #
going into FOMC I was 90% cash.
had 3 conditional orders ready:
- long ES if break above 4520
- short ES if break below 4480
- long VIX calls if spot VIX > 21
what happened #
2:00pm: fed holds rates. no surprise.
2:30pm: powell presser starts. tone dovish. mentions “progress on inflation.”
2:45pm: ES breaks 4520. long triggered.
3:15pm: ES hits 4545. +25 points. closed half.
4:00pm: ES at 4558. closed rest.
total ES trade: +$2,180 on 2 MES contracts
volatility play #
VIX spiked to 19.2 during presser.
then crushed to 15.8 by close.
had VIX puts positioned for this exact scenario.
VIX puts: +$680
options premium #
sold SPX 0DTE put spreads at 2:45pm when direction confirmed.
0DTE premium: +$420
theta decay is beautiful when you know the direction.
total fomc day #
ES futures: +$2,180
VIX puts: +$680
0DTE premium: +$420
total: +$3,280
best single day since june.
the algo response logic #
class FOMCResponseAlgo:
def __init__(self):
self.fomc_time = datetime.strptime("14:00", "%H:%M")
self.presser_time = datetime.strptime("14:30", "%H:%M")
self.breakout_levels = {}
def pre_fomc_setup(self, es_price: float) -> dict:
"""Set breakout levels 30 min before announcement"""
range_pct = 0.008 # 0.8% breakout threshold
self.breakout_levels = {
'long_trigger': es_price * (1 + range_pct),
'short_trigger': es_price * (1 - range_pct),
'stop_long': es_price * (1 + range_pct / 2),
'stop_short': es_price * (1 - range_pct / 2)
}
return self.breakout_levels
def check_breakout(self, current_price: float) -> str:
"""Check for directional breakout"""
if current_price > self.breakout_levels['long_trigger']:
return 'LONG'
elif current_price < self.breakout_levels['short_trigger']:
return 'SHORT'
return 'FLAT'
simple but effective. don’t predict the fed. react to the market’s reaction.
triple witching friday #
2 days away.
$5.1 trillion in options expiring.
usually choppy. will reduce position sizing.
11:38pm wednesday. fomc day crushed it. +$3,280 total. rates held, powell dovish, ES broke out +38 points. played the breakout with ES futures (+$2,180), VIX puts (+$680), and 0DTE premium (+$420). best day since june. triple witching friday coming.
-AK