august almost done.
september starts next week.
time to set expectations.
what august taught #
1. volume drives everything
optimal VIX meaningless without volume.
august: perfect VIX 16.0, terrible volume -29%.
result: compressed edge.
2. filters save capital
39% avg acceptance vs 100%.
preserved $5k+ vs forcing trades.
3. patience is skill
3.5 trades/week vs normal 8.
accepted scarcity.
survived positive.
4. slippage scales with volume
normal: 1.9 ticks
august: 2.8 ticks
+47% execution cost.
september historical patterns #
volume:
post-labor day return.
institutional desks staffed.
typically 90-95% of july levels.
volatility:
september avg VIX: 17-20.
slightly elevated vs summer.
election years add uncertainty.
my performance (2023):
september 2023: -$8,400 (-2.1%)
disaster month.
over-traded post-summer.
forced setups.
lesson learned.
september 2024 expectations #
realistic outcomes:
modest gain (+1% to +2%) - likely.
flat (+0% to +1%) - possible.
small loss (-1% to -2%) - acceptable.
NOT expecting:
strong month (+3%+).
why:
ytd already +18.7% above target.
no pressure to perform.
better to maintain discipline.
volume forecast #
week 1 (sep 2 - labor day):
holiday monday.
short week.
volume: 80-85% normal.
week 2-4:
full return expected.
volume: 90-95% normal.
vs august:
august avg: -29% vs july.
september est: -5% to -10% vs july.
massive improvement.
slippage forecast #
if volume returns to 90-95% normal:
slippage should drop to 2.0-2.2 ticks.
vs august 2.8 ticks.
vs july 2.3 ticks.
execution costs improving.
filter adaptation #
august avg acceptance: 39%
september forecast: 55-65%
why:
volume improving.
regime confidence rising.
correlation normalizing.
more opportunity.
trade frequency forecast #
august: 3.5 trades/week avg
september forecast: 6-8 trades/week
monthly total: 24-32 trades
vs august 14 trades.
back to normal.
position sizing #
staying at $1,500.
not increasing despite:
account at $434,800.
could justify $1,800-2,000.
reason:
4 months remaining 2024.
ytd already above target.
preserve discipline > scale up.
maybe january 2025.
circuit breaker #
august: not triggered once.
september: will stay vigilant.
threshold: -$1,500 single day OR 3 consecutive losses.
especially important:
post-summer restart.
easy to over-trade.
strategy adjustments #
none planned.
august proved:
strategies work.
filters work.
regime detection works.
problem was conditions not strategy.
september conditions improve = strategy performs.
psychological prep #
august lessons:
patience paid off.
didn’t force trades.
survived positive.
september mindset:
don’t over-trade post-summer.
maintain august discipline.
accept normal variance.
avoid:
making up for “lost” august opportunity.
chasing notable month.
abandoning filters.
ytd context #
current: +$68,600 (+18.7%)
target: +15-18%
buffer: +0.7% above target
remaining months: 4 (sep, oct, nov, dec)
implication:
can have 2 flat months.
can have 1 small losing month.
can have 1 modest month.
still finish 15-18%.
zero pressure.
september targets #
conservative: +$2,000 (+0.5%)
realistic: +$4,000 to +$8,000 (+1% to +2%)
stretch: +$10,000 (+2.5%)
unacceptable: -$8,000+ (-2%+)
circuit breaker prevents unacceptable.
comparing to 2023 september #
2023:
-$8,400 loss.
over-traded.
forced setups.
revenge traded post-summer.
2024 plan:
maintain august discipline.
let volume return naturally.
accept normal variance.
difference: patience.
risks to watch #
election volatility:
november election.
september-october could be choppy.
market structure:
correlation could spike.
personal:
don’t let relationship thoughts distract trading.
A. and i stable, but marriage thoughts persistent.
tonight (august 24, 3:05am) #
september preview.
august taught: volume drives everything.
september forecast:
volume returning (90-95% normal).
slippage improving (2.0-2.2 ticks).
acceptance rising (55-65%).
opportunity increasing (6-8 trades/week).
realistic target: +1% to +2%.
avoiding 2023 mistake: over-trading post-summer.
ytd buffer: +0.7% above target, zero pressure.
mindset: maintain august discipline.
3:05am saturday. september preview. august lessons: volume drives everything, filters saved capital, patience is skill. september forecast: volume returning to 90-95% normal, slippage 2.0-2.2 ticks, acceptance 55-65%, 6-8 trades/week. realistic target +1% to +2%. avoiding 2023 over-trading mistake. ytd +18.7% gives zero pressure. maintain august discipline.
-AK