november done.
election month. conservative approach. modest gains.
exactly as planned.
november final numbers #
starting (nov 1): $510,180
ending (nov 30): $517,640
november gain: +$7,460 (+1.46%)
trades: 27
wins: 20
losses: 7
win rate: 74%
trading days: 19 (holiday week)
Figure 1: November weekly breakdown. Week 1: +$0 (election pause). Week 2: +$3,660 (post-election rally). Week 3: +$2,450 (steady). Week 4: +$1,350 (thanksgiving). Defensive positioning early month, return to normal mid-month. Total +$7,460 (+1.46%).
weekly breakdown #
week 1 (nov 1-2): +$0 (0.00%), 0 trades - election pause
week 2 (nov 3-9): +$3,660 (+0.72%), 78% wr, 9 trades - post-election
week 3 (nov 10-16): +$2,450 (+0.48%), 71% wr, 7 trades - steady
week 4 (nov 17-23): +$1,350 (+0.26%), 75% wr, 4 trades - thanksgiving
week 5 (nov 24-30): +$0 (0.00%), 0 trades - holiday weekend
comparing to target #
november realistic outcomes (from oct 31):
election uncertainty: +0.5% to +1.5%
november actual: +1.46%
result: AT TARGET (high end)
defensive approach worked. protected capital during uncertainty, captured rally after.
market conditions november #
avg VIX: 18.2 (elevated for election, normalized after)
avg correlation: 0.62 (moderate)
avg volume: 3.8M contracts (below normal, holiday impact)
regime stability: 0.78 (normalized post-election)
conditions: volatility spike → calm. premium selling favorable second half.
Figure 2: 2025 YTD through November. Monthly bars: Jan +$9,550, Feb +$8,920, Mar -$9,582, Apr +$9,732, May +$3,840, Jun +$9,180, Jul +$7,600, Aug +$5,060, Sep +$14,120, Oct +$13,960, Nov +$7,460. Cumulative YTD +$79,040 (+18.19%). November modest but protected capital during uncertainty. December target: close strong, end year 17-19%.
trade distribution #
options: 23 trades, +$6,580 (88% of gains)
SPX: 14 trades, +$4,320
QQQ: 7 trades, +$1,840
Individual stocks: 2 trades, +$420
crypto: 3 trades, +$680 (9% of gains)
BTC: 2 trades, +$480
ETH: 1 trade, +$200
futures: 1 trade, +$200 (3% of gains)
ES: 1 trade, +$200
Figure 3: November gains by instrument. SPX options dominated (+$4,320, 58% of total), followed by QQQ options (+$1,840, 25%), crypto (+$680, 9%), individual stocks (+$420, 6%), and ES futures (+$200, 3%). Premium selling focus continued.
algo performance breakdown #
election mode risk manager:
worked perfectly. no trades during uncertainty.
returned to normal wednesday post-election.
hedges: +$240 net (cost worth peace of mind)
vix term structure (paper trading):
signals: 4
theoretical performance: +1.8%
status: continuing paper testing through december
premium selling:
primary strategy. 88% of gains.
IV normalized quickly post-election.
key trades #
best trade: post-election SPX iron condor, +$1,280
worst trade: pre-thanksgiving QQQ timing, -$380
most satisfying: holding through election with discipline (no trades = no losses)
circuit breaker performance #
triggered: 0 times
close calls: 1 (election night, stayed in cash)
largest loss: -$380 (thanksgiving week)
capital preservation: excellent
ytd performance update #
jan: +$9,550 (+2.18%)
feb: +$8,920 (+1.99%)
mar: -$9,582 (-2.10%)
apr: +$9,732 (+2.18%)
may: +$3,840 (+0.84%)
jun: +$9,180 (+1.99%)
jul: +$7,600 (+1.62%)
aug: +$5,060 (+1.06%)
sep: +$14,120 (+2.93%)
oct: +$13,960 (+2.81%)
nov: +$7,460 (+1.46%)
ytd total: +$79,040 (+18.19%)
annual pace: 19.8%
vs target: 15-18%
progress: slightly ahead, december determines final
december preview #
trading:
FOMC dec 17-18
year-end flows
holiday weeks (christmas, new year)
realistic december outcomes:
mixed month: +0.5% to +1.5%
target: +1.0% to +1.5%
personal:
anniversary trip dec 13-16 (big bear)
A. still has no idea
tonight (november 30, 11:55pm) #
november done. +$7,460 (+1.46%) across 27 trades. 74% win rate. election discipline worked. ytd +$79,040 (+18.19%), annual pace 19.8%. account $517,640. december: FOMC, holidays, anniversary. targeting +1.0-1.5% to close year strong.
11:55pm sunday. november wrap. election month done. +$7,460 (+1.46%) on 27 trades, 74% wr. election pause worked - no trades during uncertainty, rally captured after. ytd +$79,040 (+18.19%), pace 19.8%. account $517,640. december: FOMC, holidays, anniversary trip. target +1.0-1.5%.
-AK