mid-november.
ytd pacing check.
december preview.
current ytd status #
nov 12 balance: $445,620
jan 1 starting: $366,200
ytd gain: +$79,420 (+21.7%)
annual target: +15-18%
exceeded by: +3.7%
monthly breakdown 2024 #
january: +$27,200 (+7.4%) - impressive
february: +$1,400 (+0.36%) - flat
march: +$1,100 (+0.28%) - testing
april: +$23,460 (+5.9%) - strong
may: +$3,500 (+0.83%) - normal
june: +$8,320 (+1.97%) - modest
july: +$2,720 (+0.63%) - modest
august: +$900 (+0.21%) - survival
september: +$6,860 (+1.58%) - modest
october: +$3,120 (+0.71%) - modest
november (partial): +$840 (+0.19%) - on track flat
pattern holds:
2 impressive months (jan, apr) carried year.
9 modest/flat/survival months = sustainable.
december acceptable outcomes #
current: +21.7%
target finish: +19-21%
december can be:
losing month (-1% to -3%) = finish +18.7% to +20.7%
flat month (+0% to +0.5%) = finish +21.7% to +22.2%
small gain (+0.5% to +1%) = finish +22.2% to +22.7%
all acceptable.
upper range preference: +19-21% (demonstrates discipline).
what december -2% would mean #
scenario: december -2% (-$8,900)
ending balance: $436,720
annual return: +19.3%
outcome: still standout year, within target range.
key point: losing month acceptable at this stage.
proves: not forcing trades, accepting variance.
comparing to 2023 #
2023 ytd (nov 12):
still learning.
down significantly.
emotional trading.
no system confidence.
2024 ytd (nov 12):
+21.7% validated strategies.
disciplined execution.
variance accepted.
transformation complete.
november expectations rest of month #
nov 13-30 (2.5 weeks):
thanksgiving week slow.
2-3 normal trading weeks.
realistic november outcome:
+$1,500 to +$2,000 total (+0.34% to +0.45%).
perfectly flat month.
risk management ytd #
circuit breaker triggers 2024: 0
losing months: 0 (so far)
max monthly drawdown: -$2,220 (october week 2)
position sizing: consistent $1,500 all year
discipline maintained throughout.
lessons from ytd pacing #
1. notable months can’t sustain
jan +7.4%, apr +5.9% = outliers.
can’t expect monthly.
2. modest months compound
9 months modest/flat = +$52,220 combined.
sustainable pace.
3. ytd cushion enables patience
+21.7% allows:
- skipping election week
- pausing thanksgiving
- december losing month acceptable
4. variance is real
august +0.21% vs april +5.9%.
both acceptable outcomes.
5. annual targets realistic
+15-18% achievable with:
- 2 standout months
- 8-9 modest/flat months
- 1-2 losing months acceptable
what success looks like rest of year #
november:
flat month (+0.3% to +0.5%).
december:
flat to small loss (+0% to -2%).
annual finish:
+19-21%.
proves:
sustainable algo trading.
discipline through variance.
realistic expectations.
not heroics, just consistency.
tonight (nov 12, 2:48am) #
mid-november ytd check.
+21.7% exceeds target by 3.7%.
november on track flat (+0.19% so far).
december can be losing month and still finish +19-21%.
2 strong months carried year.
9 modest/flat months = sustainable pace.
zero pressure rest of year.
2:48am tuesday. mid-november ytd +21.7% above 15-18% target. november +0.19% on track flat. december can be -1% to -3% and finish +18.7% to +20.7% (still strong). 2 strong months (jan +7.4%, apr +5.9%) carried year. 9 modest/flat months demonstrate sustainable pace. circuit breaker unused all year. discipline maintained. variance accepted.
-AK