week 2 done.
volume recovered post-holiday.
solid gains.
week 2 numbers #
starting (jul 7): $470,680
ending (jul 13): $472,940
week gain: +$2,260 (+0.48%)
trades: 7
wins: 6
losses: 1
win rate: 86%
trade breakdown #
options (5 trades): +$2,040
SPX: 3 trades, +$1,420
QQQ: 2 trades, +$620
crypto (2 trades): +$220
BTC: 1 trade, +$180 (broke range finally)
ETH: 1 trade, +$40
the losing trade #
wednesday jul 9:
SPX call spread
- opened expecting continued low vol
- VIX spiked 12% intraday (CPI jitters)
- closed at 150% loss
- damage: -$380
lesson:
even summer markets can spike.
kept loss small due to reduced sizing.
conditions #
avg VIX: 15.2 (recovered from 14.6)
volume: 3.4M contracts (up from 2.8M holiday week)
slippage: 1.9 ticks (normalized)
regime: still low vol but less stable
CPI report wednesday added volatility.
crypto notes #
BTC finally broke 68k range ceiling.
opened 1 momentum trade, closed +$180.
ETH followed weakly, +$40.
not forcing more crypto yet. still summer thin.
kelly sizing this week #
high-confidence: 5 trades (83% win rate)
marginal: 2 trades (50% win rate)
the loss was a marginal trade.
takeaway: stick to high-confidence in summer.
account status #
current: $472,940
ytd: +$35,140 (+8.01%)
july: +$3,500 (+0.75%)
vs target: on pace (target +1.5% to +1.8%)
halfway through month, halfway to target.
week 3 expectations #
no major economic releases.
volume should stay around 3.2-3.5M.
target: +$1,800 to +$2,200
may increase crypto allocation slightly if BTC holds breakout.
tonight #
week 2 july complete. +$2,260 (+0.48%) across 7 trades. 86% win rate. one loss (-$380 on CPI spike). options +$2,040, crypto +$220 (BTC broke range). volume recovered to 3.4M. account $472,940, ytd +8.01%. july +$3,500 halfway through, on pace for target.
2:18am sunday. week 2 july review. +$2,260 across 7 trades, 86% win rate. one loss from CPI spike (-$380). BTC broke 68k range, took 1 momentum trade (+$180). account $472,940, ytd +8.01%. july at +0.75% halfway through.
-AK