election done.
markets adjusting.
conditions normalizing.
election week results #
mon nov 4: paused (planned)
tue nov 5: paused (election day)
wed nov 6: +$240, 1 trade, 100% wr (cautious re-entry)
thu nov 7: reviewing tonight
week 1 total: +$660 (fri nov 1 + wed nov 6)
current balance: $445,440
decision to pause validated #
tue nov 5 actual:
SPX gap up 2.1% at open.
VIX crushed from 21.8 to 15.2.
correlation spiked to 0.84.
if i traded:
my strategies don’t handle gaps.
would’ve been stopped out or forced exit.
sitting out = correct.
wed nov 6 re-entry #
conditions assessed:
VIX: 15.2 (optimal range)
volume: 4.2M contracts (strong)
correlation: 0.68 (normalizing from 0.84 spike)
regime confidence: 0.71 (acceptable)
filters: 62% acceptance
executed: 1 trade only (conservative)
result: +$240
proving patience.
comparing to if i’d traded tue #
hypothetical tue trading:
gap up 2.1% at open = instant stop loss trigger on any short positions.
or gap through entry points on long setups.
my strategies require:
normal market structure.
predictable correlation patterns.
regime stability.
binary events break all three.
cost of sitting out tue: $0 (no loss)
cost of trading tue: potentially -$2k to -$5k from gap risk
missed opportunity wed? +$240 captured anyway
patience paid.
nov 8-30 outlook #
expected conditions:
VIX likely 14-18 (optimal).
volume sustained post-election (4M+ contracts).
correlation normalizing (0.55-0.65).
thanksgiving week caveat:
nov 25-29 likely slow.
will assess as approaches.
realistic november outcome:
flat month (+0% to +0.5%) - ideal given ytd.
modest gain (+0.5% to +1%) - acceptable.
small loss (-1% to -2%) - acceptable.
all keep annual 19-21%.
risk management stats week 1 #
position sizing: $1,500 standard (both trades)
circuit breaker: not triggered, not close
trades executed: 2 (fri nov 1, wed nov 6)
trades paused: 2 days (mon-tue election)
filters avg: 62%
regime confidence: 0.74 avg (both trade days)
max drawdown week 1: $0 (both trades profitable)
discipline maintained.
ytd november tracking #
nov 1 starting: $444,780
nov 7 current: $445,440
november gain so far: +$660 (+0.15%)
ytd total: +$79,200 (+21.6%)
still above annual target 15-18%.
zero pressure rest of month.
lessons from election week #
1. binary events = pause
can’t model unpredictable outcomes.
gap risk unlimited.
sitting out correct.
2. patience pays
missed tue, captured wed anyway.
no FOMO necessary.
3. ytd cushion enables discipline
+21.6% allows skipping risky days.
protecting gains > forcing trades.
4. normal conditions return quickly
wed already normalized.
markets move on fast.
5. pre-planning prevents mistakes
decided oct 31 to pause nov 4-5.
stuck to plan.
no emotional deviation.
personal - wedding planning begins #
this week:
A. and i looked at 3 beach venues.
narrowed to 2 favorites.
booking deposit probably next week.
may 2025 timeline locked.
small ceremony (30-40 people).
her family + close friends.
my side: no family (parents dead).
few close friends from UCSD days.
rings:
she’s involved now (post-engagement).
found perfect simple platinum band.
diamond smaller than expected (her choice).
cost way less than i budgeted.
tonight (nov 7, 1:58am) #
election week navigated.
paused mon-tue (correct decision).
re-entered wed cautiously (+$240).
week 1 total: +$660.
november +0.15% so far.
ytd +21.6%.
conditions normalizing.
thanksgiving week next decision point.
1:58am thursday. election week done. paused mon-tue as planned (correct - gap risk would’ve crushed strategies). re-entered wed +$240 cautious. week 1 total +$660. ytd +21.6% above target. conditions normalized fast. thanksgiving week next assessment.
-AK