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Strategy

momentum strategy live - first week results
went live with momentum strategy monday. ran it alongside mean reversion all week. first week results in. strategy recap # mean reversion (existing): trade in ranging markets, high win rate, small consistent wins
testing momentum overlay - early results promising
been running mean reversion strategies for 4 months. works well. 87% win rate in july. but: only trades when price reverts. misses trending moves. the idea # add momentum overlay to existing system.
vol detection system is live
went live with vol regime detection friday morning. first real test today. what happened # saturday market (crypto):
looking ahead to june
may is wrapped. planning june now. what i’m carrying forward # strategies: premium selling (working) mean reversion v2 (needs more testing) vol regime detection (deploying monday) risk management:
building volatility regime detection
need to stop trading when volatility spikes. building detection system. the problem # this week VIX spiked 18% in 2 days. my strategies got stopped out twice.
checking my backtests for overfitting
worried my strategies are overfit to historical data. spent today testing for it. been reading NexusFi backtesting threads about this exact problem. the problem # my backtests look great:
correlation risk - learned the hard way
lost $1,400 yesterday because i didn’t track correlation between my positions. dumb mistake. what happened # may 10, 2pm:
may day 1 - smaller position sizes
cut position sizes in half. only trading 3 strategies now. first day of may went… fine? +$180 on one trade. nothing else triggered. new risk rules # old position sizing: 2.5% risk per trade = $850 max loss (on $340k account)