mid-may.
time for reality check.
variance is normal.
may performance (so far) #
week 1: +$80 (44% wr)
week 2: +$1,100 (67% wr)
week 3: -$1,000 (25% wr)
may total (3 weeks): +$180 (+0.04%)
basically flat.
comparing to april #
april: +$23,460 (+5.9%)
may (so far): +$180 (+0.04%)
difference: -$23,280 (-5.86%)
massive variance.
the mental trap #
easy thought:
“april worked, may failing. strategy broken. need to fix.”
reality:
april = impressive conditions.
may = normal conditions.
strategy = working as designed.
nothing broken.
what variance looks like #
2024 monthly performance:
january: +$27,200 (+7.4%) - standout
february: +$1,400 (+0.36%) - flat
march: +$1,100 (+0.28%) - flat (testing)
april: +$23,460 (+5.9%) - impressive
may (projected): +$180 to +$1,680 (+0.04% to +0.4%) - flat
pattern:
2 impressive months.
3 flat months.
this is normal algo trading.
comparing to 2023 #
2023:
total year: -$34k (-8.5%)
learning year.
paid tuition.
2024 (so far):
ytd: +$52,880 (+14.4%)
2 strong, 3 flat.
massive improvement.
what’s working #
risk management:
circuit breaker prevented disaster.
position sizing adapted to conditions.
filters aggressive during high vol.
psychology:
accepted losing week calmly.
no revenge trading.
followed rules during pause.
strategy:
adaptive parameters working.
regime detection filtering correctly.
surviving tough conditions.
what’s not working #
market conditions:
VIX too high (avg 23.6 in may).
correlation too high (avg 0.68).
regime instability (avg 0.52).
can’t control these.
can only adapt.
the patience requirement #
tempting to:
overtrade to “make back” april gains.
change strategy because may flat.
force trades in wrong conditions.
discipline:
accept flat months.
preserve capital.
wait for conditions to align.
patience.
ytd reality check #
current: +$52,880 (+14.4%)
annual target: +15-18%
at target pace already.
rest of year can be:
- 4-5 flat months (+0% to +1%)
- 2-3 modest months (+1% to +2%)
- 1-2 losing months (-1% to -3%)
still hit 15-18% annual.
no pressure.
comparing to expectations #
unrealistic expectation:
april performance monthly.
5-7% every month.
74% win rate sustained.
realistic expectation:
2 notable months per year.
5-6 flat months.
3-4 modest months.
1-2 losing months.
15-18% annual.
may matching realistic expectation.
the growth indicator #
september 2023:
losing week = spiral, revenge trading, $28k disaster.
may 2024:
losing week = pause, analysis, calm return, $1,420 contained.
20x better response.
that’s the growth.
relationship stability helps #
A. during may volatility:
monday lost $880: she didn’t panic.
tuesday circuit breaker: “good, you’re following rules.”
wednesday pause: gave space, didn’t pressure.
thursday-friday: normal routine.
stable home life = stable trading psychology.
what i learned mid-may #
1. variance is normal
april impressive won’t repeat monthly.
may flat is acceptable.
2. circuit breakers work
prevented spiral.
saved account.
3. conditions matter
can’t force wins in wrong environment.
survival mode valid.
4. psychology improved
lost week without spiraling.
accepted reality.
5. relationship support
A. stable regardless of trading results.
helps maintain perspective.
looking forward #
1 week remaining may.
if VIX calms (<20):
resume normal trading.
target +$500 to +$1,500.
if VIX stays elevated (>22):
continue survival mode.
accept flat/small losing month.
either outcome acceptable.
the bigger picture #
ytd: +14.4% in 4.5 months
annualized: ~38%
target: 15-18%
need correction.
may providing it.
healthy.
tonight (2:56am) #
mid-may check.
3 weeks: +$180 (basically flat).
variance is reality.
not failure.
april strong.
may normal.
both valid.
discipline maintained.
psychology healthy.
system working.
2:56am thursday. mid-may check. 3 weeks +$180 (0.04%). april +$23,460, may flat = variance not failure. circuit breaker worked (3 losses → pause). ytd +14.4% still on pace for 15-18% annual. flat months normal. discipline maintained. growth evident.
-AK