mid-august.
halfway through slowest month.
patience tested.
august so far (12 days) #
starting (aug 1): $433,900
current (aug 12): $434,340
august gain: +$440 (+0.10%)
trades: 9
wins: 6
losses: 3
win rate: 67%
weekly breakdown #
week 1: +$380, 60% wr, 5 trades
week 2: -$140, 33% wr, 3 trades
week 3 (partial): +$200, 100% wr, 1 trade
pattern:
win, lose, win.
normal variance.
what’s challenging #
opportunity scarcity:
9 trades in 12 days.
avg 0.75 trades/day.
vs normal 1.6 trades/day.
patience required:
watching most days pass with zero trades.
filters rejecting 60%+.
can’t force it.
slippage persistent:
avg 2.85 ticks.
vs july 2.3 ticks.
vs june 1.9 ticks.
execution costs eating edge.
what’s working #
discipline:
not forcing trades in bad conditions.
accepting days with zero opportunity.
filters:
adapting to volume drought.
protecting capital vs chasing.
position sizing:
consistent $1,500 all trades.
no panic adjustments.
comparing to forecast #
early august estimate: flat to small gain (+$0 to +$1,500).
mid-august actual: +$440 (0.10%)
on track.
second half projection:
if similar pace: +$440 more.
august total estimate: +$880 (0.20%)
within range.
ytd check #
starting 2024: $366,200
current: $434,340
ytd gain: +$68,140
ytd return: +18.6%
annual target: 15-18%
exceeded by 0.6%.
august can be flat rest of month.
still finish year in target range.
zero pressure.
psychology check #
feeling:
not frustrated.
not bored.
just patient.
why:
ytd already above target.
august doesn’t need to be standout.
survival = success.
difference from 2023:
then: forced trades when bored = losses.
now: accept boredom = preservation.
growth.
remaining august #
16 trading days left.
realistic outcomes:
modest gain (+$400 to +$800) - likely.
flat (+$0 to +$400) - possible.
small loss (-$200 to $0) - acceptable.
all within plan.
what i’m watching #
volume trends:
late august historically picks up.
people return from vacation.
if volume improves:
acceptance rate should rise.
slippage should improve.
opportunity should increase.
if volume stays dead:
continue preservation mode.
either way = acceptable.
lessons so far #
1. august lives up to reputation
slowest month confirmed.
can’t fight it.
2. patience is skill
not trading > forcing trades.
3. ytd cushion enables discipline
+18.6% ytd removes pressure.
can afford to wait.
4. filters prevent disasters
60%+ rejection = capital preservation.
tonight (august 12, 3:20am) #
mid-august.
+$440 (+0.10%).
67% win rate across 9 trades.
16 days remaining.
volume still terrible.
slippage still elevated.
filters still protecting.
patience holding.
discipline maintained.
survival on track.
3:20am monday. mid-august check. +$440 (0.10%). 67% wr across 9 trades in 12 days. avg 0.75 trades/day vs normal 1.6. slippage 2.85 ticks vs july 2.3. filters rejecting 60%+. ytd +18.6% above target. second half estimate +$440 more = ~$880 august total. patience tested, discipline holding.
-AK