week 3 august done.
summer grind continues.
volume still garbage.
week 3 numbers #
starting (aug 19): $434,540
ending (aug 19): $434,780
week gain: +$240 (+0.06%)
trades: 4
wins: 3
losses: 1
win rate: 75%
august progression so far #
week 1: +$380 (0.09%), 5 trades
week 2: -$140 (-0.03%), 3 trades
week 3: +$240 (0.06%), 4 trades
august total: +$480 (0.11%)
12 trades total across 3 weeks.
avg 4 trades/week.
compare to july avg: 7.8 trades/week.
volume drought real.
slippage tracking #
week 3 avg: 2.7 ticks
august avg so far: 2.8 ticks
july avg: 2.3 ticks
june avg: 1.9 ticks
summer degradation continues.
but:
week 3 slightly better than weeks 1-2 (2.9 ticks avg).
small improvement as volume stabilized.
filter stats week 3 #
acceptance rate: 41%
up from:
week 1: 38%
week 2: 35%
trend:
volume still low but stabilizing.
filters adapting.
still rejecting 59% of signals.
capital preservation mode.
market conditions #
avg volume: -28% vs july
improvement from week 1: -32%
still terrible but less terrible.
avg VIX: 16.2 (optimal range)
correlation: 0.55 (weak but improving from 0.52)
regime stability: 0.70 (up from 0.68)
market slowly waking up.
not there yet.
comparing to forecast #
early august projection:
flat month (+$0 to +$500) likely.
current pace:
3 weeks done: +$480
1 week remaining: if similar, +$160-$400
projected august total: +$640 to +$880
within forecast range.
ytd check #
starting 2024: $366,200
current: $434,780
ytd gain: +$68,580
ytd return: +18.7%
annual target: 15-18%
exceeded by 0.7%.
rest of year can be flat/slightly negative.
still finish in target range.
zero pressure.
what’s working #
discipline: not forcing trades when volume sucks.
filters: adapting to conditions (rejection rate tracking volume).
position sizing: consistent $1,500 all trades.
slippage management: chicago colo preventing 3.5+ tick nightmare.
what remains challenging #
opportunity scarcity: 4 trades/week vs normal 8.
execution costs: slippage eating 25-30% of gross gains.
patience: watching most signals get filtered out.
august reality.
week 4 preview #
last week of august.
historical pattern:
late august volume picks up slightly (people return from vacation).
realistic expectations:
modest week (+$200 to +$600) - likely.
flat week (+$0 to +$200) - possible.
filters probably: 40-45% acceptance.
slippage probably: 2.5-2.8 ticks.
august month-end projection #
current: +$480 (0.11%)
week 4 estimate: +$200 to +$600
projected august total: +$680 to +$1,080
projected august return: +0.16% to +0.25%
within summer slowest month expectations.
lessons so far #
1. august lives up to reputation
slowest month confirmed.
volume -28% avg vs july.
2. filters prevent losses
38-41% acceptance preserving capital.
vs forcing trades = potential losses.
3. slippage matters more in low volume
2.8 ticks eating 25-30% gains.
in normal volume, would be 15-20%.
4. patience pays
ytd +18.7% allows zero pressure.
surviving august = success.
tonight (august 19, 9:30pm) #
week 3 august done.
+$240 (+0.06%).
75% win rate across 4 trades.
august total: +$480 (0.11%) across 12 trades.
volume slowly stabilizing.
filters still rejecting 59%.
1 week remains.
projected august: +$680 to +$1,080 total.
summer grind continues.
week 4 begins tomorrow.
9:30pm monday. week 3 august. +$240 (0.06%). 75% wr across 4 trades. august total +$480 (0.11%) across 12 trades in 3 weeks. avg slippage 2.8 ticks vs july 2.3. volume -28% vs july but stabilizing. filters accepting 41% week 3 (up from 35% week 2). 1 week remaining. projected august total +$680 to +$1,080. ytd +18.7% above target.
-AK