Posts
January 2025
week 2 january - building momentum, consistency over home runs
·536 words
week 2 january done.
consistency building.
no home runs, just base hits.
week 2 performance # trades: 8
wins: 6
parameter tuning - avoiding overfitting with walk-forward validation
parameter optimization = dangerous.
easy to overfit historical data.
walk-forward validation = solution.
the overfitting problem # traditional optimization:
week 1 january - modest start, normal conditions returning
·465 words
week 1 january done.
modest start.
conditions normalizing post-holidays.
week 1 performance # trades: 7
wins: 5
losses: 2
win rate: 71%
new year trading restart - clean slate, zero pressure
·512 words
2025 begins.
december losing month behind.
annual 2024 +19.55% locked.
clean slate.
2024 final scorecard # starting (jan 1, 2024): $366,200
2024 year-end review - transformation complete, wedding ahead
·1267 words
2024 complete.
transformation year.
looking back, looking forward.
the numbers - 2024 annual # starting balance (jan 1): $366,200
December 2024
december wrap - first losing month since 2023, annual still standout
·986 words
december done.
2024 done.
first losing month since learning.
annual still notable.
december final numbers # starting (dec 1): $446,100
week 5 new year's - final week 2024, small loss, year ends strong
·693 words
final week 2024 done.
new year’s approaching.
year ends strong despite december.
week 5 numbers # starting (dec 30): $439,920
week 4 christmas - small loss, selective execution, family time
·601 words
christmas week done.
paused dec 24-26 as planned.
small loss acceptable.
week 4 numbers # starting (dec 23): $441,180
christmas week pause - family time with A's family
·643 words
pausing trading christmas week.
spending time with A’s family.
first real christmas since mine died.
trading pause plan # pausing: